IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	-11.3	#332
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.5	#213
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.7	#319

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.7	#328

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.0%	29.6%	6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.0	16.0	16.0

.500 or above	13.8%	49.6%	13.7%
.500 or above in Conference	58.1%	88.0%	58.1%
Conference Champion	7.3%	18.6%	7.3%
Last Place in Conference	5.6%	0.0%	5.6%

First Four	6.2%	23.4%	6.2%
First Round	3.6%	22.6%	3.6%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Gonzaga (Away) - 0.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 6
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 7
Quad 3	0 - 3	0 - 11
Quad 4	10 - 9	11 - 20

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2019	8	@ Gonzaga	L	60-91	0.1%
Nov 10, 2019	125	@ Missouri St.	L	60-77	6%
Nov 12, 2019	32	@ Houston	L	55-81	1%
Nov 20, 2019	30	@ Tennessee	L	59-86	1%
Nov 25, 2019	28	@ Virginia Commonwealth	L	56-83	1%
Nov 29, 2019	235	Chattanooga	L	67-74	26%
Dec 09, 2019	165	@ South Dakota	L	63-77	11%
Dec 11, 2019	50	@ Kansas St.	L	52-76	2%
Dec 14, 2019	90	@ Boise St.	L	60-80	5%
Dec 22, 2019	211	Austin Peay	L	70-78	24%
Dec 29, 2019	16	@ Oregon	L	52-80	1%
Jan 04, 2020	303	@ Jackson St.	L	63-69	30%
Jan 06, 2020	269	@ Grambling St.	L	68-76	24%
Jan 11, 2020	353	Mississippi Valley	W	76-66	80%
Jan 13, 2020	343	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	69-64	67%
Jan 18, 2020	352	Alabama A&M	W	69-63	69%
Jan 25, 2020	346	@ Southern	L	67-68	49%
Jan 27, 2020	345	@ Alcorn St.	L	68-69	48%
Feb 01, 2020	277	Prairie View	L	73-75	45%
Feb 03, 2020	265	Texas Southern	L	79-82	42%
Feb 08, 2020	353	@ Mississippi Valley	W	73-69	62%
Feb 10, 2020	343	@ Arkansas Pine Bluff	L	66-67	47%
Feb 15, 2020	352	Alabama A&M	W	70-61	77%
Feb 22, 2020	346	Southern	W	70-64	68%
Feb 24, 2020	345	Alcorn St.	W	71-66	67%
Feb 29, 2020	277	@ Prairie View	L	70-78	26%
Mar 02, 2020	265	@ Texas Southern	L	76-85	24%
Mar 05, 2020	303	Jackson St.	L	65-66	49%
Mar 07, 2020	269	Grambling St.	L	71-73	43%
Projected Record						10 - 19	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	1.1	1.9	2.0	1.2	0.5	0.1		7.3	1st
2nd											0.1	0.8	2.5	3.5	2.1	0.5	0.1				9.7	2nd
3rd										0.2	1.5	4.0	4.5	1.9	0.4	0.0					12.5	3rd
4th									0.2	2.3	4.9	4.5	1.5	0.2	0.0						13.5	4th
5th							0.0	0.4	2.9	5.7	4.1	1.1	0.1								14.3	5th
6th						0.0	0.5	3.4	5.3	3.3	0.6	0.0									13.2	6th
7th					0.1	0.7	3.2	4.5	2.3	0.4	0.0										11.2	7th
8th				0.1	1.0	2.8	3.5	1.6	0.2	0.0											9.1	8th
9th		0.0	0.1	1.0	2.1	1.9	0.8	0.1													6.0	9th
10th	0.1	0.4	0.7	1.1	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0													3.2	10th

Total	0.1	0.4	0.9	2.1	3.8	5.6	8.0	10.0	10.9	12.0	11.1	10.5	9.0	6.6	4.4	2.6	1.3	0.5	0.1			Total

Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.5		0.5	0.0
16-2	93.9%	1.2		1.1	0.2	0.0
15-3	78.9%	2.0		1.4	0.6	0.0
14-4	43.8%	1.9		0.9	0.9	0.2	0.0
13-5	16.9%	1.1		0.2	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-6	3.7%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.4%	0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	7.3%	7.3		4.1	2.3	0.7	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		52.3%	52.3%		15.5															0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
17-1	0.5%		45.6%	45.6%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3
16-2	1.3%		36.8%	36.8%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8
15-3	2.6%		30.0%	30.0%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.7	1.8
14-4	4.4%		23.1%	23.1%		16.0																0.0	1.0	3.4
13-5	6.6%		15.3%	15.3%		16.0																0.0	1.0	5.6
12-6	9.0%		11.2%	11.2%		16.0																	1.0	8.0
11-7	10.5%		8.2%	8.2%		16.0																	0.9	9.6
10-8	11.1%		4.8%	4.8%		16.0																	0.5	10.6
9-9	12.0%		3.9%	3.9%		16.0																	0.5	11.5
8-10	10.9%		2.3%	2.3%		16.0																	0.2	10.7
7-11	10.0%		2.0%	2.0%		16.0																	0.2	9.8
6-12	8.0%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	7.9
5-13	5.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	5.6
4-14	3.8%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	3.8
3-15	2.1%																							2.1
2-16	0.9%																							0.9
1-17	0.4%																							0.4
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		7.0%	7.0%	0.0%	16.0														0.0	0.0	0.2	6.7	93.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%